Russia has announced plans to form 17 new divisions and a new army corps to restore much of the former Soviet military glory while continuing to fight relentlessly for eastern areas of Ukraine during the 43rd week of the war.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu unveiled plans to expand the army from 1.15 million to 1.5 million on December 21 and referred to the imminent expansion of NATO to include Finland and Sweden. Within this force, the professional army would almost double to 695,000 — a potential admission that Russian conscripts have proved ineffective on the offensive.
“The expansion of NATO’s advance presence near the borders of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus and the West’s intention to continue military operations in Ukraine in order to weaken Russia as much as possible are reasons of particular concern,” Shoigu said.
Russia conscripted 300,000 troops in September and October to send them to Ukraine, and another 200,000 as part of its regular conscription cycle last month. Shoigu’s announcement suggests that another 350,000 are now being recruited.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, agreed with the Ukrainian military leadership that Russia could prepare for a major ground offensive in winter — possibly against Kiev — to force Ukraine on terms more favorable to Moscow.
The main Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine and its missile terror campaign against the population “do not force Ukraine to negotiate or make preventive concessions,” according to the ISW.
The ISW concluded that Russia does not currently have the economic capacity to strengthen its armed forces, but that could change.
“Putin can decide to appropriate Russian government funds so that the Kremlin can deploy a large conventional military at the expense of economic growth and consumer comfort, as the Soviets did,” it said.
Aerial campaign
Russia has continued its psychological war against the Ukrainian civilian population. Air raid sirens went off across the country on December 16 as Russia fired 76 rockets at critical energy infrastructure — the ninth extensive salvo since the start of the air campaign in early October. Forty of the rockets were fired at Kiev. Most were shot down, but 16 hit their target, causing power and water outages in several major cities, including the capital.
Two days later, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that the air defense had destroyed 30 of 35 Shahed drones made in Iran, which were fired into Ukrainian territory from the Sea of Azov.
Ground War
Over the course of the week, Russia and Ukraine launched ground offensives in the two eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
The action focused primarily on two areas — between Swatov and Kreminna in Luhansk, which is only a few kilometers behind the contact line under Russian occupation, and between Soledar and Bakhmut in Donetsk, which Russia is in immediate danger of overrunning.
On December 16, Russia announced that its armed forces had repelled reconnaissance and sabotage units investigating the defense of the Kreminna. Three days later, Russia claimed to have destroyed four reconnaissance groups near Rozivka, which had likely examined Russian defenses around Swatov, just 15 km (9.3 miles) from the front lines.
The Ukrainian General Staff said its armed forces would repel Russian ground offensives on a daily basis, causing heavy losses. “Due to the significant losses suffered by the invaders, the conversion of hospitals in the temporarily occupied areas of Luhansk Oblast into military hospitals continues… The local population is denied service and it is recommended that they contact other medical facilities.”
Russia claimed to have taken “new advantageous lines and positions” in Donetsk every day. The only demonstrable gain in territory was the Russian occupation of the Yakovlivka settlement in Donetsk on December 18.
The fiercest fighting took place in and around the town of Bakhmut in Donetsk, whose eastern edge is now occupied by Russia.
The independent Russian newspaper Meduza published photos of everyday life there. They show people living in semi-bombed buildings and crossing streams on duck boards. According to reports, much of daily life takes place underground.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky paid a daring visit to the city on December 20, just a few blocks away from the Russian armed forces, and thanked the soldiers “for their courage, resilience and strength.” Zelenskyy frequently arrived unannounced at various locations along the front lines, but this was his most fearless appearance to date.
On the same day, Duma MP Andrey Gurulev said that Russian President Vladimir Putin was in the zone of the so-called military special operation, without revealing where, and “spoke to all commanders” — an obvious attempt to cement Putin’s image as a dedicated military leader equal to Zelensky.
Putin had tried this for the first time on December 16, when the Kremlin said he was at the joint headquarters of the armed forces. Video analysis suggested that he was on Russian soil, at the headquarters of the Southern District in Rostov.
A day after Bakhmut, Zelenskyy visited Washington, DC, and appeared with US President Joe Biden. This was his first known trip outside Ukraine since Russia’s invasion on February 24. He thanked the Americans for their military support and asked for more.
“We have artillery, yes, thank you… Is that enough? Frankly, not really,” Zelenskyy told the US Congress, whose Republican members have many spoken out against higher spending on Ukraine. “Your money is not charity. It is an investment in global security and democracy that we use most responsibly,” he said.
Biden had a ready answer for Zelenskyy. He released the sophisticated US Patriot air defense system for use in Ukraine — something that, according to the Russian embassy in Washington, would have “unpredictable consequences.” Congress is expected to approve an additional $45 billion in military and financial aid to Ukraine by the end of the year, in addition to the $70 billion approved so far.
The relentless Russian campaign has prompted other NATO members to reconsider self-imposed restrictions on arms deliveries to Ukraine.
British Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said he would reconsider Britain’s refusal to supply long-range weapons if Russia continued attacks against civilians.
“I’m constantly checking what weapons systems we could provide,” Sky News quoted Wallace as telling Parliament on December 13. “We too have potential weapons systems that are longer, and should the Russians continue to target civilian areas and try to break these Geneva Conventions, I’m open to what we’ll do next,” he said, referring to the basic humanitarian principles agreed upon during the war.
Slovakia said on December 12 that it was ready to send MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine until a NATO deal was concluded. It is also well known that Poland is pushing for NATO to allow it to send its MiGs.
Greece is reportedly considering sending Ukraine a battery of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, which are currently in eastern Crete. According to Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, this is a “blatant aggressive step against Russia.”
When asked whether the US would provide Greece with a Patriot air defense system to replace the S-300, State Department spokesman Ned Price referred to Slovakia’s donation of S-300 to Ukraine at the start of the war. “We were able to support and facilitate this contribution by meeting Slovakia’s needs,” he said.
Russia also stated that it was using new weapons and sending its most advanced T-90 “Breakthrough” tanks to the Eastern Front, without specifying how many. According to Moscow, the tank is the best protected and has “highly automated fire control systems.”
Putin took a trip to Minsk. He said the Russian and Belarusian military carried out “combat coordination,” fueling fears of another attempt to march on Kiev from the north. Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine from both Belarusian and Russian territory on February 24.
Putin, who has consistently referred to the possible use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, also said that he would “continue to train the crews of Belarusian Army fighter aircraft, which have already been retrofitted with a special warhead for the possible use of airborne ammunition.”
Although Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ruled out the use of nuclear weapons from his soil in February, he approved Putin’s proposal in August to convert Belarusian Su-24 aircraft to carry nuclear warheads.
The economic war also continued rapidly.
European Union energy ministers agreed on a gas price cap of 180 megawatt hours on the EU internal market on December 19 in order to reduce increased energy costs for EU governments and consumers as a result of the war. The cap is to come into force from February 15 at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the most important European gas hub, and on March 31 at all European gas hubs.
News agency Bloomberg reported that Russian oil exports fell by 54 percent in the week after a Group of Seven (G7) price cap of $60 per barrel came into effect, but warned that the sample was still too small to be certain that the cap was the cause of the drop.