The United States announced on Wednesday that it would send a Patriot missile battery to Ukraine. Experts believe that this will immediately strengthen the country’s defense capabilities and reduce the threat of Russia’s relentless air strikes.
The announcement ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Washington represents a significant increase in US military support almost ten months after the war began, and news of the transfer before the announcement quickly led to warnings from Moscow that it would target weapons in Ukraine.
The Russian embassy in Washington described the move as a “provocative step” that “may lead to unforeseeable consequences.”
However, the Patriot missile systems, which are mounted on vehicles, are mostly used defensively to protect military and civilian targets. The missiles are designed to hit medium and high altitude targets such as rockets, fighter aircraft, bombers, and drones.
“This protects important places like Kiev overnight in a way they’ve never been able to protect it before from everything that Russia has,” said John Spencer, chair of urban warfare studies at the Madison Policy Forum, about the Patriot systems.
“So it’s really a trump card when it comes to bombing Ukrainian civilian positions, infrastructure and important sites,” he added.
The Pentagon said on Wednesday that the Patriot would “contribute to a multi-layered defense to counter the full range of threats that currently threaten Ukraine’s cities and civilians,” and to strengthen the United States’ previous air defense capabilities to the embattled country.
The Patriot batteries also have advanced radar systems that will improve Ukraine’s ability to locate and combat threats at higher altitudes. The cost of the entire Patriot battery is estimated at around $1 billion, while each rocket costs around $3 to 4 million.
Comprehensive training is required to operate the systems. Spencer, however, said he was confident that solutions to this challenge were part of the Pentagon’s planning. US troops trained Ukrainian colleagues in Poland throughout the war, and the Pentagon said Ukrainian military personnel were being trained on the Patriot in a third country.
Piotr Żochowski, a senior fellow at the OSW Center for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, said the weapons could be crucial to containing the damage caused by Russian air strikes on energy infrastructure, in what has been described as an attempt to “arm” the harsh winter in Ukraine.
“Ukraine, which is threatened by a power failure, must focus on ensuring the safety of power plants,” he said, pointing out that the number of systems and training would be the most important success factors. “If this happens relatively quickly, it will help the Ukrainian armed forces significantly reduce the effectiveness of Russian attacks.”
Żochowski described the Kremlin’s response to reporting on arms shipments as “standard.”
“In my opinion, Russian threats are part of the information war. Any strengthening of Ukraine’s defense potential causes problems for the Russians and makes it difficult to escalate airstrikes,” he said.
The Biden administration had reportedly considered sending Patriot batteries to Ukraine, but just two weeks ago, the Pentagon said it had “no plans” to ship the systems.
Since the Russian attack on Ukraine began in February, Kiev has repeatedly called for more Western air defense systems.
These demands have become more significant in light of an airstrike from Russia in recent weeks, which used rockets and Iranian-made drones to bomb power plants and other military and civilian targets across the country.
John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine who now serves on the Atlantic Council, said the Biden administration was apparently responding to congressional pressure and public criticism, but Moscow’s own actions were likely the deciding factor.
“Patriots are born because of this absolutely cruel, large-scale Russian bombing of infrastructure in Ukraine,” he said.
Details of the US’s plans remain unclear, including which version of the Patriot battery will be delivered, where it comes from, how long it will take before it reaches Ukraine, or whether more batteries could follow.
Herbst predicted that the first battery would be used in Kiev to protect key government and military targets and protect the most populous city from power outages.
The former ambassador, who served in Ukraine under former President Bush from 2003 to 2006, said the Biden administration was always “shy” and responded to Ukraine’s needs “a day too late and a dollar short.”
He noted, however, that fears of Russian retaliation for the perceived “escalation” by the US abated after repeated warnings from Moscow failed to result in follow-up action.
Pentagon press secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder said last week that the US would not be deterred by Russia’s warnings. He remarked that it was “ironic” that the country, which is waging a brutal war, would describe the use of defense systems as a provocation.
“Despite Russian propaganda about portraying itself as a victim, it’s important to remember that Russia is the aggressor here,” he said at a press conference.
“And when it comes to escalation, they could de-escalate that situation today by withdrawing their forces and saving countless innocent lives, but they’ve clearly chosen to redouble their efforts,” he said.